The Red Brigade aka Lal Masjid Pograam

Sorry about the cheesy title.

I have been trying to make some sense of whats been happening in Islamabad with conflicting thoughts and theories put forward by different people and on why the government is letting these people get away with their shenanigans and now I have a theory.

The only thing everyone was sure of was that there was no way this was going to end on a good note. Regardless of whether this was being staged by the government to highlight their importance as the only guardians against the very real danger of talibanisation or fear of reprisals in the year of the elections added to the whole reaction against the sacking of the Chief Justice, it was going to blow up sooner or later. The other theory I pondered upon was that the powers that be were being advised by morons and making the wrong decisions like they usually do.

With all that in mind, and knowing that it could be a combination of all of the above, I think I have finally figured out what the government is trying to do. One word (or is it two)

Al Arqam

For the benefit of those who don't know, Darul Arqam was a sect or a movement in the Far East, based out of Malaysia but with a large following in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. The founder Ashaari Muhammad, claimed to be Imam Mehdi (Big Surprise!). This gentleman made the usual sounds about reforming Islam and the world etc. and also said he would rule Malaysia one day. The latter, added to the usual threat of suicide bombers and implementation of Shariah all over the place, was something that the Malaysian government was not going to take sitting down. So Al Arqam was banned, government employees were ordered to leave the sect or face disciplinary action. The crackdown began, people were arrested, funds frozen, and it all fizzled out.

Lal Masjid is not Al Arqam. What started out as a plan to hold on to illegally occupied land has grown much beyond the capacity or the ambition of its leaders (they probably don't think that way). Thanks to the Zia years, they were given free rein to do as they pleased, since the madrassas were creating the cannon fodder for the proxy war being fought in Afghanistan. The rest we all know, Chechneya, Bosnia and Kashmir. With the pressure to shut them down in Kashmir, they have nowhere to go and now they have turned their attention to vigilantism, an outlet for all their pent up anger based on their versions of religion and morality. They are well armed, disciplined to a certain extent and are taught to obey orders blindly, something that was needed to do what they were programmed to.

Pakistani government has failed miserably in forcibly weeding out talibanisation in Waziristan and all along the Afghan border. They finally resorted to making a deal with them which just means that the army won't meddle with their affairs. The difference between that and Lal Masjid is the fact that Waziristan is being looked after by the war on terror as well. So every few days, NATO bombs and kills a few people, and the government makes a noise and thats the end of it. If only NATO would come and deal with Lal Masjid, but that was not to be.

So here is the plan, wait till Lal Masjid becomes a major issue (like the Al Arqam), wait for them to make the first move (not that important since there will always be conflicting stories of who fired the first shot) and then take care of it. If the government had done this when it started, do you think the world would know about it? They could have solved this flouting of the law by removing "chicks with sticks" from the premises, putting a new cleric in charge, and that would have been the end of that. This is much better, Lal Masjid has been in the headlines for the last few months, now everyone knows and the government can claim their victory.

FL has recently played Good Cop/Bad Cop by himself with the whole PEMRA ordinance. Now this is Incompetent Cop/Efficient Cop. Brilliant, as usual!!

Unfortunately the "best laid plans of mice and men" often go awry. Lets see how this unfolds. Last I heard, there was a curfew around the Lal Masjid, and the deadline for amnesty had passed. Islamabad is turning into Karachi, so Islooites, welcome to the club!